Results of the 2022 California gubernatorial race were updated on Friday, showing Governor Gavin Newsom leading State Senator Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) 57.8% to 42.2% with 56% of the votes in, signaling the weakest performance by a Democrat in the race since 2010.
In 2010, the last Gubernatorial race before the “jungle primary” narrowed the November election to two candidates, former Governor Jerry Brown defeated Republican Meg Whitman 53.8% to 40.9%. In 2014, that gap grew, with Brown winning reelection over Treasury Department official Neel Kashkari 60%-40%. 2018 brought in Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom facing off against businessman John Cox, but drew a 61.9%-38.1% total. The recall election in 2021 did little better, with 61.88% voting no on the recall.
But, as the latest total shows, something unusual happened this year. Despite little in the way of campaigning, with Newsom even spending funds on ads outside of California, what should be at least a 20 percentage point difference at this time in the counting simply isn’t happening. If the numbers hold, Newsom will have the lowest percentage for a Democrat since 2010 and Dahle the highest for a Republican since Schwarzenegger’s reelection in 2006. And even if Dahle does dip below 40%, by the number of votes, he’ll have the most for a GOP candidate in years.
But if the numbers hold, both Republicans and Democrats are going to really be choosy in their candidates in 2026, or, if Newsom does decide to break his promise and runs for President and leaves office early, in 2024. Despite a red wave not being nearly as big this year as many thought, it has made many races across California close, and it terms of the Gubernatorial race, back within the confines of being a competitive election instead of a just a shoo-in for the Democrats.
High crime rates, a statewide homeless problem, inflation, a worsening economy, high taxes forcing many businesses and residents to go out of state and numerous other issues pulled many voters to vote Republican in California, including the the Gubernatorial race, while issues such as abortion rights kept enough Democrats and moderates from voting for the GOP to prevent a wave. But with most of these issues likely still being huge issues in the next several years, the question now becomes just how close can the Republicans come to winning the next one, and who can they elevate up to get people to vote? And, also importantly, was the 2022 GOP surge in votes just a fluke due to multiple factors, or is it a sign things are turning around.
Looking ahead to 2026
“For the last several elections, the GOP put up candidates who were very diverse. We had a woman (Whitman), a person of color (Kashkari), and an older white businessman (Cox),” explained explained Justine Rollins, a political advisor and debate organizer, to the Globe on Friday. “They were from up and down the state and had unique histories. But they kept progressively doing worse. You can blame some of that on national trends brining out a strong mid-term vote, but the GOP never really had anyone exciting. Schwarzenegger was, of course, and got many Democrats to vote for him simply because of his fame. But the next ones just didn’t cut it.
“The trend was reversed this year, or at least it is looking that way now. You have a lot of people worried about inflation, and angry about the conditions in California. They hate seeing so much go out of state and the homeless crisis and everything, so that was a big part. Dahle didn’t even register for a lot of people, yet he’s looking like the best candidate since Arnold for the GOP.
“A part of it is also, and this is something not really talked about, is how Dahle actually had political experience going in. Elected political experience. Outside of a few races here and there, like the LA Mayor’s race, those without prior experience of some kind just didn’t do well in the bigger races. So when people were on the fence, and saw ‘State Senator’ under Dahle on the ballot, it made people feel better about voting for him. You know, not going into this all blind.
“With all the closer races coming out of SoCal, the GOP would do good to start looking for the next candidate out of there, or the Central Valley. Dems are on a trend of going with Bay area people. And with people like San Francisco Mayor London Breed and Senator Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) looking up, chances are the next candidate will come out of there too for them. GOP needs to take advantage of where they are strong.
“You have young guns like Assemblyman Scott Gallagher (R-Yuba City) and soon-to-be Congressman Kevin Kiley. And then you have more established names like Congresswomen Michelle Steel and Young Kim, both of whom would really draw votes from some Democratic areas. It is still four years away, and there are four more years of Newsom to contend with. Who know, the Democrats may strike back. But it looks like the Dems might be on a downward track now, so the GOP may have some golden opportunities coming up. Time will tell.”
Results in the gubernatorial race are expected to continue to come in in the next several weeks.
View Comments (10)
Evan, Very Well Written, Very Insightful, I Live in So. Cal. And Have Seen the Miles if Homeless Along The Train Tracks by Sacramento, On My Way Visiting No Cal, There is A Story 2
Clearly Repub Brian Dahle did remarkably much better at this point in the ballot count than was expected or predicted, given a campaign bank account of under $1M to work with vs. Gavin Newsom's reported $23M (probably more) to work with.
But wait! The Shirley Weber-run SOS website shows that, as of last Thurs., Nov. 10, when everyone stopped counting, there remained, STATEWIDE, 4,829,879 ballots still to be counted. (With additional mail-in ballots likely to come in to the various county registrars.)
The count total for Newsom RIGHT NOW is almost 4 million, for Dahle almost 3 million. With almost 5 MILLION + ballots left to count (with more than 1 MILLION in L.A. County alone, by the way) and the ballots already counted likely majority- Dem, with ballots to be counted likely majority-Repub, how on earth could it ever be considered kosher to call the election on Nov. 8, Election Day evening, as a Gavin Newsom WIN?
It seems to me that one cannot make a statistical projection for a winner when what we've been told is that two entirely different groups (Dem-voting and Repub-voting) are being processed at different times. In this case, Dem-leaning were presumably counted before they stopped counting, and Repub-leaning will presumably be counted in the days and weeks to come, AFTER the election has already been called for a Newsom win. And with a friendly media's help, that is a train that apparently cannot be stopped.
The main point I wanted to make is probably obvious to all who might read this, but so be it.
What SOS and County Registrars appear to be doing follows the same model that was likely used to install Biden in 2020. They "count the votes" with some funny business thrown in that makes a partial count favorable to their side, then stop "counting" or slow the count down to an occasional trickle, perform more funny business to backfill the gaps, then friendly media calls the race for the Democrat even though it's not yet statistically possible to project, anointing him or her, then more media climbs on board to report the "win," after which the anointed "winner" strides to the podium, takes his place, and delivers his victory speech.
It seems to me an author like Michael Anton --- and possibly others ---- warned about this scenario before the 2020 election, calling it our (bloodless) version of the "Color Revolutions" that have happened in other countries where in the past the U.S. (ironically) has attempted to intervene to prevent installation of a dictator. I remember thinking "no, that couldn't happen here!" And then it did.
And now it is happening in elections throughout the U.S. to install Dems (Marxists) in positions of power.
Many of us don't trust elections in California and we certainly don't believe that Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom is leading in the governor's race after the horrible way that he treated Californians during the C-10 scamdemic. Newsom needs to be held accountable for crimes against humanity for locking California down while exempting himself and his cronies, for issuing mask mandates when it has been proven that masks are ineffective against viruses, and for mandating ineffective experimental mRNA shots that have injured and killed thousands.
I'm done voting in this state, it's rigged beyond redemption.
Agree.. ALWAYS FUNNY BUSINESS IN CALI VOTING!! WHY HAS THE COUNTING BEEN STOPPED WITH SO MANY OUTSTANDUNG INCOUNTED VOTES!!!??
LIARS, CHEATERS IN CALI.. WHY HAS COUNTING CEASED? BOTES ARE VERY CLOSE WITH MILLIONS OUTSTANDING.. #INDEP VOTE MONITORS NEEDED. #SMH
Reinette Senum wrote in her substack that Newsom wasn’t legally on the ballot because he didn’t provide five years of tax returns to the Secretary of State. Can someone please sue Newsom and the SOS already? https://reinettesenumsfoghornexpress.substack.com/p/houston-we-have-a-problem-cas-gov
Not rigged, fair and honest elections. Republicans need to run strong candidates and stop blaming the Democrats for every evil in CA. Surprise! There was homelessness, gangs, illegal immigration and high crime in the 80’s-90’s when Republican’s ran the entire state. No one party has all the answers. R’s should work with the D’s and initiate their own workable programs and bills to help folks and solve real problems the state is facing, treating everyone with dignity. Then they’ll start wining again.
Right. Sure. *eyeroll*