The last Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll before the election was released on Thursday, showing Newsom’s lead in the Gubernatorial race slip below 20 points, as well as many key propositions on the ballot failing by wide margins.
According to the poll, which was conducted in mid-to-late October, Gavin Newsom is currently leading in the Gubernatorial election with 55% of the vote, with Senator Brian Dahle (R-Bieber) getting only 36% of the vote. The split on votes was found to be largely partisan, with 91% of Democrats in favor of Newsom, 86% of Republicans for Dahle, and a 47%-37% divide in Independents slightly favoring Newsom.
While still a commanding lead, Dahle has slowly been gaining ground in the last month or two as the election nears. In August, Newsom was leading Dahle 52% to 25%, while in September polls found Newsom up 58% to 31%. With Newsom having seemingly hit a ceiling with support levels, Dahle has incrementally improved each poll. Also shown was a strong regional comeback by Dahle. Previous polls found that Dahle was behind in support in every major populated region in the state, with Thursday’s poll now giving Dahle a slight lead in the Central Valley. Albeit, this is still with the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles regions having two out of every three voters favoring Newsom.
In addition, Newsom’s approval rating is at 56% according to the poll, roughly about average since taking office. However, support has fallen dramatically in a few regions, such as the Central Valley, due to inflation and drought issues impacting the region hard, a factor which experts attribute to Newsom’s halt in additional Gubernatorial voting support.
“Regions like the Central Valley, who have been hurt severely by the drought, and far Northern counties, who have been rocked the most by inflation this year, have kind of led the charge in blocking Newsom from getting above that 60% threshold,” explained Erica Ziegler, an elections consultant who specializes in Gubernatorial races, to the Globe on Thursday. “The GOP know that, barring some sort of miracle, they aren’t going to win the Gubernatorial race. But they also want to see improvement. So if they can keep Newsom from getting 61.9% of the vote like he received in 2018, or the 61.8% Newsom beat the recall by last year, they can maybe build on something for 2026. If they keep him below 60%, it would show many that the Dems peaked in California in 2018 and might now be receding. And these poll numbers are encouraging or that kind of outcome.”
Props 26, 27, and 30 on track to fail next month at the polls
In addition to the Gubernatorial race, the PPIC poll assessed where voters stood on Propositions 26, 27, and 30, with all three being found to be severely behind in passing. Prop 26, which would allow in-person sports betting at Indian casinos, as well as more craps and roulette tables at them, is currently behind, with 57% of Californians likely to vote no and only 34% looking to vote yes. Prop 27, which would allow online and mobile sports betting, fared worse, with only 26% approving of the proposition and 67% against it. Finally, Prop 30, which would raise taxes on individuals making $2 million or more a year to fund wildfire management and electric vehicle initiatives, is al also down by a slim margin, with 52% against and 41% for.
While Propositions 26 and 27 have never had yes-supporters in the lead, Prop. 30 has continued to fall in support since earlier this year. Prop. 30 had 63% in support and only 35% against it in July, a summer heatwave showing the stresses that the electric grid in California faces and what an increase in electric cars would do to it, as well as backlash over Lyft being behind the Proposition and the unlikely mix of the Republican Party, the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, the California Teachers Association, and Governor Gavin Newsom opposing it, led to quickly diminishing support. Earlier this month, support for the proposition had fallen to only 49%, with 37% opposing it. The new polls findings on Thursday have further shown the stunning turnaround of the Proposition, which many believed had been a lock for passage only a few months ago.
“It really has been incredible,” explained Elsie Castro, a ballot issue advisor in San Jose, to the Globe on Thursday. “Supporters of it had been pretty much mocking those against to show them why it shouldn’t pass. Then the power grid buckled with the heat wave. Then Governor Newsom and the Republicans both released ads against it. The majority of Californians still agree that electric cars are important for the future, but now most are also agreeing that Prop 30 isn’t the way to go about it. I mean, just step back for a second on how bitter some of these races have been and just appreciate the fact that at least one thing on the ballot has Republicans and Democrats so much against it. This doesn’t happen often.”
In addition to questions over the Governor and ballot Propositions, the PPIC poll also found that only 47% of Californians think that the state is currently headed in the right direction, with only 33% saying that the country as a whole is going in the right direction.
“We’ve been seeing a swing towards GOP candidates nationwide in last month or two, and California has been no exception despite being known as a pretty blue state,” added Castro. “A lot of races are inching back to the GOP or on ballot questions that Republicans have a strong opinion about. And look at this, Newsom is losing ground still despite that big lead, and those Props are going down. A lot of people are really thinking hard about who and what to vote for this year, and I think this poll is showing that sot of change.”
Other final polls are due out within the next 10 days.
View Comments (24)
If only enough Californians would connect the dots and vote against Newsom!
You are right. His support of releasing criminals has caused many people's deaths, including caravan people that are being transported to farm-workers sleeping quarters, they are not vetted or quarantined, and no vaccine is required or mask.
Newsom and his electric cars and trucks, going after non-union truck drivers, more taxes, no help for veterans but putting caravan people in motels and feeding them.
Prayers forour country
Sadly, even with the national trends and the fact that Newsom is a truly awful governor and reprehensible person, it may not be enough time for California to catch up with the "red wave."
That being said, Brian would be a good governor and Newsom's camp is counting very heavily - presidential campaign-wise - on a strong showing. If Dahle can keep Gavin below 60 % that would be a bit of a signal going forward (Gavin couldn't claim he did better than i the recall). If Brian can keep Gavin at 55%, that would be very important psychologically when it comes to a national campaign. If Gavin gets below 55%, that's a very very serious political problem for him and for anyone who is thinking about anointing him the next President. And if it's at all actually close, it could almost be game over for the White House - Gavin is getting so much play nationally in part because of his string of easy victories; people outside the state have no idea the depth of the one-party blob rule and actually give him a bit of personal credit for winning big. Of course, if it is close Gavin will tout the first mail-in numbers - which will be higher - and then keep using that number hoping no one will notice - he knows the press won't correct him and people will hear the first big margin number and tune out the final result, like with the recall a bit and definitely like what happened in 1992 in the New Hampshire Republican primary which many many people still think Pat Buchanan beat George HW Bush - true, it was closer than expected - especially in the early results reporting - but Bush actually won by 15 points.
Asked every parent of school-age children you know if they like the new school start times. "Governor Dad" made it law despite his own children attending exclusive private schools. Hold him accountable.
Sadly, we know this ends with Gavin still in command but maybe we can make a dent in the state legislature?
It's difficult to ever take these PPIC polls seriously because they have a history of containing a number of flaws that disqualify them for consideration, for example that they over-sample Democrats. The polls also tend to conveniently appear when it would behoove Dems to shape public opinion instead of reflect it, which raises suspicions.
Some of us have developed a shorthand way of determining where a person or a group is coming from. For instance, the first time I heard L.A. County Public Health Director and Fake Doctor Barbara Ferrer use the word "Latinx" I knew she was trouble. In the case of PPIC, take a look at (10 minutes or so is all you need) this Feb 2020 "conversation" of Gavin Newsom with Marc Baldassare, CEO of PPIC, and you will see Baldassare is obviously an acolyte of Newsom's. Also note at the beginning of the video the list of sponsors of the PPIC's "Speaker Series." Gee, I wonder if every single person associated with PPIC, including its donor-supporters, is a Democrat who has something to gain from Newsom as Governor? So much for PPIC's "independence" and "non-partisanship."
"A Conversation with Governor Gavin Newsom"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=redQQhTfqJs
This particular PPIC poll, which apparently concludes that Newsom has gone down a bit in support but, never fear Dem supporters, he easily has it in the bag anyway (*eyeroll*) looks to me like it has been released at this particular time to send the message "don't even bother" to those who intended to vote against The Worst Governor Ever. Don't let them get away with it. Vote for change and an escape from the worsening CA hellhole. Vote for Brian Dahle for Governor and tell everyone you know to Vote for Brian Dahle for Governor.
By the way, anyone who is at a loss to know which judges to vote for, or to retain, should check out Craig Huey's CA voter guide.
https://craighuey.com/california-voter-guide-2022/ (Scroll down to find the link for your county.)
Huey uses a standardized system to evaluate and rate judges which has been invaluable for voters over the years. Judges are extremely important but most of us have no clue about who any of them are or how they would be likely to rule. Some of them, I heard former L.A. County D.A. Steve Cooley say today, have even been funded by Soros and are ideological twins of radical current L.A. D.A. George Gascon.
Thanks. A technique I used to evaluate the judges is to look up who appointed them. If Newsom appointed them, they got a no vote, Jerry Brown, no vote, and so on.
Oh yes, that seems like a good plan. Some people pick D.A.s, but it's definitely not foolproof. I'm really glad to have this guide and end the guessing game.
Thank you for that helpful info!
:) Cali Girl
Taking this as a good sign. In good `ol blue CA, it starts by chipping away at the democrats control and they are aware that they are all in hot water and starting with this election cycle it will slowly happen. Never give up!
Brawley Los Angeles is panicking in an area where Biden was 20 points ahead; Pelosi pulled $2 mil PAC funding in Republican Mike Garcia's district. Dahle appeared on Newsmax, 'New California' making waves about honest elections. Pray for a wave! Just watched a segment of Larry King live from 19 years ago showing Newsom claiming to be a practicing Catholic, married in the church -LOL .... at what point did Satan claim his soul?
Newsom doesn't HAVE a soul...or a functioning BRAIN....
VOTE FOR BRIAN DAHLE on ELECTION DAY ONLY!!! Don't give the Democrats any early voting info they can use...
We need to blitzkrieg them on ELECTION DAY so they have less time and ability to marshal their cheating techniques!!!
I love your updates, Marilyn Midura. It's like getting the latest news flashes 'off the wire."
Newsom’s God’s gift to the world, and wants to run it. At least he would be out of California and I’m not sure how DC would accept him. But if DC can accept a demented person like Joe, I guess they can accept anything. The really upside is that he’d go against DeSantis, and DeSantis would wipe the floor with him.
To think that I may see Newsom’s demise in two short years brings joy to my heart.
Sadly, infanticide will become legal in the state thanks to Prop 1 which will most likely pass with flying colors. California is a strange land where people endlessly moan about the misery they are subjected to and yet continually vote in the exact same people who causes this misery election after election. The people here never learn and so are doomed to endless misery (while the rest of us who do connect the dots are made to suffer right along with them).